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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still