A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
